Over time, mortgage rate movement lines up almost perfectly with movement in the underlying bond market, but there can be day to day discrepancies dep...
It would be an overstatement to say that this week's econ calendar has been "active," but yesterday at least had unscripted comments from Fed Chair Po...
“Yesterday I was devastated to learn that the 2025 Psychic Prediction Convention was cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.” Yesterday, while the ...
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take their most important cues from big ticket economic reports. But such reports have been in short suppl...
Fed Chair Powell speaks today at a chamber of commerce luncheon in Providence. While the venue may not possess the gravitas of last week's press confe...
At recent conferences I’ve attended, including here in Atlanta at the Loan Vision Innovation Conference, talk of federal government partisanship, post...
After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday's Fe...
Although the present week brings the release of PCE inflation for August, and although PCE is the most relevant inflation data when it comes to assess...
Officially, our daily mortgage rate index is a hair lower today than it was yesterday. Your mileage may vary depending on the lender in question. Reas...
Builder confidence levels continued kicking a sad little can down the same long and lonesome road. The September National Association of Home Builders...
The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total h...
What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured ...
In your defense, perhaps you're not too bothered or concerned about the market/rate movement since Fed day. But if you are, here's some perspective. W...
In China, red symbolizes prosperity, protection, and welcoming energy, and so is a popular front door color for occupants, especially when facing sout...
It's day two of mortgage rates surging higher--now back to the highest levels in 2 weeks (the day before the September 5th jobs report). The juxtaposi...
JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, PNC Bank, N.A. and others announced a decrease in its prime lending rate to 7.25 percent, ...
This morning's economic reports (jobless claims and Philly Fed) are not notoriously big market movers, but many analysts gave ample credit to Claims f...
Several things happen on Fed Day--especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members. The official announcement of a ...
Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first...
The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any vola...
Today I find myself in Vancouver, WA, splendid in the autumn, to meet with various mortgage folks and especially the Banner Bank mortgage crew, coveri...
Mortgage rates dropped sharply lower today relative to the amount of movement in the underlying bond market with the average lender right in line with...
My cat Myrtle was always up for a battle with a lizard in the yard. On a larger scale, the ancient Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu said, “Every battle is ...
After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas C...
Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move lower over the past 4 months. The first Fridays in August and September account for about half of the...
For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back alway...
“Someone posted that they had just made synonym buns. I replied, ‘You mean just like the ones that grammar used to make?’ I am now blocked.” That was ...
The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight. Weaker bonds equate to higher rates,...
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much...
“Rob, we’ve said ‘no’ to more expansion possibilities than ever before. Are you hearing other lenders doing deep dives on LOs and branches and also no...
Today's inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly c...
It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction. At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded num...
“All I know is what I read in the papers,” Will Rogers quipped. In news in the papers from our Census Bureau, AI use at large companies is in decline....
Wednesday brought the first of this week's two key inflation reports. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the lesser of the two in terms of potent...
Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt s...
“Rob, I hate it when mom and dad fight. Will this Pulte/Bessent, FHFA/Treasury tussle impact mortgage rates?” Probably not; it hasn’t so far. Director...
Mortgage applications jumped 9.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. The results...
It had to happen at some point. After spending 4 straight days of setting new 11-month lows, mortgage rates finally moved higher today, but the headli...
Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply"
At its core, the bond market is like any other financial market, and securities are like almost any other commodity/good/service when it comes to the laws of supply and de...